Nielsen released data last month showing the top mobile phones in use in the U.S. in Q3. Motorola’s RAZR continued to top this list, but it’s interesting to note that the iPhone outpaced it in sales according to previously released data from NPD Group.

The iPhone is the fastest selling phone in fact, with 7 million units sold in Q3, suggesting that it will continue to climb this list and become more of a mass market device in ‘09. This premise was also supported by data presented at ILM:08 by comScore’s Brian Jurutka.

Overall data consumption also seems to be growing in step with greater iPhone penetration (along with smart phone penetration — likewise outpacing the market).

This supports claims of a ramp up in mobile search volume this year, which bodes well for mobile local search. Advertising growth will be slower due to its experimental nature, combined with the economy (as we keep saying). But it’s nonetheless on the horizon, supported by these leading indicators.

I won’t say I agree with everything Chris Smith says in his column today in Search Engine Land, which offers 10 ideas for saving the Yellow Pages. But I do agree with a lot of it. In fact, much of what Chris says is similar to recommendations we have made in recent years, such as embracing call ubiquitous call measurement and embracing rather than resisting opt out distribution.

Smith argues that the Yellow Pages industry needs to become more honest about the situation it faces, more transparent in communicating return on investment, and adjust its pricing to reflect its true value, among other things. Fair enough.

I could nitpick at some of his assumptions, but overall this is a constructive list of recommendations, and importantly, it shows a more nuanced view of Yellow Pages than we have generally seen from those reporting from an online-only perspective. Smith seems to think Yellow Pages can be saved. We agree, but the industry’s challenges are acute and getting worse, something made more apparent by the fact that both Idearc and RHD have been delisted by the NYSE, a far fall from their peak as cash-rich investor darlings.

There is still some life in many newspapers, but recent results have encouraged a basic question: what would it be like if newspapers left the scene?  Would our information needs be met by NPR? Blogs?

The common belief is that we are entering unchartered territories in journalism with the rise of social media, blogs, online video, search, tagging, etc. But history majors look to the past.

Social critic Louis Menand, in the Jan.5 edition of The New Yorker (which doesn’t put its articles online), says we’ve seen a new media emerge out of the ashes of newspapers before. Specifically, The Village Voice, the most successful alternative weekly ever, which really hits its stride during successive pressman strikes in 1962 and 1965. “By 1967, The Voice had single-day circulation higher than the circulations of 95 percent of American big city dailies,” he points out.

While The Voice was known in part for being co-founded by author Norman Mailer, its editorial was actually a hodge-podge of (barely paid or free) free- lance contributions, tied together by classifieds.  “The Voice was the blogosphere – whose motto might be ‘Every man his own Norman Mailer’ – and Craigslist fifty years before their time,” says Menand.

Despite The Voice’s later embrace of alternative lifestyles, it wasn’t especially ideological.  In fact, at its founding, it echoed the sensibility of Mailer and others and ignored gay culture  – this, the weekly paper for Greenwich Village. “The Voice was not on the cutting edge of anything except journalism. That, of course, is why it survived,” says Menand.

Menand also notes that the motto of pioneering editor Clay Felker at The Voice (and later magazines such as New York and Esquire) was that “print must be for the educated and affluent elite.”  This was in comparison with mass media TV, of course.

Given the fragmentation of the Web, and the wealth of alternative information sources, there isn’t the same kind of opportunity for a Voice to rise up from the death of newspapers.  But to  Menand, that isn’t the point.

The opportunity was from organic journalism, and the ability to build an audience around it. It is a different result than preached by the corporate types that run The Newseum, for instance, as a mausoleum for the triumphs of the 20th Century newspaper industry.

Briefly referenced in the previous post is a column I wrote for Local Search News on mobile local search. This is the basis for a TKG report currently in the works. Here is the column itself, which continues after the jump:

If you go by the predictions heard during the last ten years of industry conferences, mobile search’s tipping point is perpetually 18 months away. But now we’re in a stronger position than ever, thanks to quickly evolving device standards and open source mobile platforms that welcome third party innovation.

This of course was ushered in with the iPhone, but will continue with a second wave of devices and the continued death of the carrier-controlled environment that has caused a sub-par set of products to dominate the market over the last 10 years.

And though the iPhone only represents about one percent of the global cell phone market, sales have been ramping up quickly. It’s now the top selling cell phone in the U.S. according to NPD group (beating out the Motorola RAZR V3) with 6.9 million phones sold last quarter.

This trend will continue as prices drop and as it becomes more of a mass market device. A big step was taken in this direction this week when iPhones began selling in 2500 nationwide Walmart stores.

(read more…)

A new online source for local search news and viewpoints launched today. Known as Local Search News, it was started by local SEO guru Steve Espinosa.

Espinosa will supply most of the content on a daily basis and tap outside perspectives for guest columns. We supplied one for the site’s launch, as did CitySquares CEO Ben Saren — a nice piece on local search intent.

The site joins a crowded field of SEO blogs but will try to stick to a local search angle. It looks to have the makings to strike a nice balance of tactical and market-level analysis.

Happy new year to everyone returning to work after the holidays. Here is a recap of posts from last week, in case you missed any. Click below to read each post in full.

Cheaper iPhone on the Way?

Speculation has been rampant about the introduction of a sub-$100 iPhone. Many thought this would come with the device’s introduction to Wal-Mart stores. That proved untrue, however, with Wal-Mart offering a mere $2 savings from the price tag in Apple and AT&T stores. I still believe we’ll see an iPhone or iPhone-like copycat for less than $100 this year. Already, Apple is selling refurbished iPhones for $99. The shape and size of a cheaper iPhone joins the perennial Apple product guessing game that ebbs and flows around upcoming Macworld expos. (read more…)

App Development to Drive Mobile Growth

Two main factors have led to increased attention on the mobile industry: 1. Rising device standards and smartphone penetration 2. Open source operating systems that encourage third-party innovation. The New York Times takes a look at the second factor in a good introductory piece. It’s this application development that will drive the growth of the mobile sector, the article concludes, including smartphone sales. (read more…)

Internet Continues to Chip Away at Newspapers and Television

As the year-end wrap-ups, top 10 lists, and ’08 retrospectives flood in, I noticed this item released last week from Pew (I was out last week). The part that stuck out is that the Internet has overtaken newspapers for the first time this year as a source for Americans to get their news (see chart below). Also notable (but expected) is how the Internet has shown steep growth among younger viewers as a top source for news. It now rivals television among this segment (ages 18 to 29). This is supportive of analysis we’ve made about these competitive media, and should be taken to heart by anyone in the media and advertising worlds. (read more…)

2008: The Year That Was

We’re out with our predictions for 2009. But what’s the final word for 2008? Truly, it was a very stimulating and thoughtful year for our local media and commerce industry. But speaking for myself, it’s hard to say whether it was a good year, especially with fresh layoffs that we are hearing about every day. In fact, the year was kind of Dickensian (“best of times, worst of times”). On one hand, there has been an explosion in local content with YouTube, Twitter and StumbleUpon, and omnipresent local reviews with services such as Yelp and Angie’s List. Online video has become a real medium, aided by $100 video cameras and the emergence of HD standards, and mobile is starting to be a real channel, aided by GPS and iPhones. (read more…)

Will Develop Mobile Apps for College Credit

Mobile application development has reached the collegiate level, with MIT coursework now devoted to building applications on mobile platforms. The new class titled “Building Mobile Applications” has begun to do just this. I missed this item from being out for a little while, but it still has legs in my view — especially with respect to local search applications in the evolving mobile environment. Specifically, it’s emblematic of a few important trends. (read more…)

Save Two Bucks: Buy Your Next iPhone at Wal-Mart

As expected, iPhones can now be purchased at 2,500 Wal-Mart locations throughout the U.S. This won’t come with Wal-Mart’s signature markdown, as speculated. The 8 gigabyte model will sell for $197 — only $2 less than those sold at Apple and AT&T stores. But this will be more about accessibility and sales reach than price and should accelerate the iPhone’s march to mainstream penetration. Wal-Mart meanwhile hopes to benefit from drawing more (and different) customers into its stores. See a video report at ABCnews.com. (read more…)

Where.com: GPS Is Trigger for Local-Mobile Social Portal

Local mobile portals make a lot of sense since most phones (even the iPhone 3G) don’t really lend themselves to much surfing. Another social/viral dimension is added through social networking enhancements via profile pages, Twitter and especially GPS. Two services seem to be leading the way for locally based mobile social networking right now: Silicon Valley-based Loopt, which is backed by Sequoia Ventures, and Boston-based Where.com. (read more…)

Speculation has been rampant about the introduction of a sub-$100 iPhone. Many thought this would come with the device’s introduction to Wal-Mart stores. That proved untrue, however, with Wal-Mart offering a mere $2 savings from the price tag in Apple and AT&T stores.

I still believe we’ll see an iPhone or iPhone-like copycat for less than $100 this year. Already, Apple is selling refurbished iPhones for $99. The shape and size of a cheaper iPhone joins the perennial Apple product guessing game that ebbs and flows around upcoming Macworld expos (next week).

The latest comes from Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co., which projects an “iPhone nano” that will be a stripped down version of the iPhone with only phone and iPod features (sans data plan). The applications and Web browser are at the heart of the iPhone’s appeal in my opinion so this may not be the form the speculated device will take.

But one thing is for sure: Apple will transition to cheaper chipsets from Qualcomm, replacing those it currently gets from Infineon Technologies. This could be supportive of claims of a new cheaper iPhone on the horizon. Furthermore, if history is any indication, the rapid-fire introductions of new iPod models over the past eight years could support claims of a forthcoming release.

Two main factors have led to increased attention on the mobile industry: 1. Rising device standards and smart-phone penetration 2. Open source operating systems that encourage third-party innovation.

The New York Times takes a look at the second factor in a good introductory piece. It’s this application development that will drive the growth of the mobile sector, the article concludes, including smartphone sales.

It profiles a few popular apps for the iPhone and G1 such as Shazam and Ocarina. It takes a look at local too.

From the article:

“For its part, Google has about 300 applications available. Among the most popular is ShopSavvy, in which users scan the bar code of any product using the camera built into the G1 smartphone from T-Mobile. The application, which is free, then searches for the best price online and delivers the information to the phone.”

In related mobile news, Google has begun to solicit user feedback on the improvement and development of its mobile software.

As the year-end wrap-ups, top 10 lists, and ’08 retrospectives flood in, I noticed this item released last week from Pew (I was out last week). The part that stuck out is that the Internet has overtaken newspapers for the first time this year as a source for Americans to get their news (see chart below).

Also notable (but expected) is how the Internet has shown steep growth among younger viewers as a top source for news. It now rivals television among this segment (ages 18 to 29). This is supportive of analysis we’ve made about these competitive media, and should be taken to heart by anyone in the media and advertising worlds. Local media in particular will continue to mirror these overall trends.

We’re out with our predictions for 2009. But what’s the final word for 2008? Truly, it was a very stimulating and thoughtful year for our local media and commerce industry. But speaking for myself, it’s hard to say whether it was a good year, especially with fresh layoffs that we are hearing about every day. In fact, the year was kind of Dickensian (“best of times, worst of times”).

On one hand, there has been an explosion in local content with YouTube, Twitter and StumbleUpon, and omnipresent local reviews with services such as Yelp and Angie’s List. Online video has become a real medium, aided by $100 video cameras and the emergence of HD standards, and mobile is starting to be a real channel, aided by GPS and iPhones.

On the small-business front, search has gained wider acceptance in key local segments and has become mainstreamed in many ways, adding a useful channel to the ad mix. And the percentage of SMBs with Web sites or personal profile pages has crept up to 61 percent.

But what about the business? For traditional media, it was especially bad. In 2008 we had a perfect storm. Massive debt and declining circulation hit the newspapers hard — and the Yellow Pages in the same way. Sharp hits to retail, auto and real estate advertising sealed the deal. The decline in auto has not only hit traditional media. Online ad networks that aggregate local media, such as Centro, relied on auto for 30 percent of their revenues.

The result: Tribune stands bankrupt, while McClatchy and Lee and others are near bankruptcy. It even appears possible that Idearc and R.H. Donnelley — the two public YP companies in the U.S. — could file for bankruptcy (although we are not betting on that).

At the same time, old-line products such as Valpak coupons have been put up for sale, and we don’t see clear replacements for them yet. Vertical products remain compelling, but with the economic slump haven’t proved to be the hedge for which traditional media have hoped (at this point).

Moreover, third-party auto sites such as Autobytel have been put on the sales block. And vertical stars such as Zillow have begun to lay off workers, even as they form broad sales arrangements.

Local-oriented start-ups also got hit. Credit has tightened up. The only companies that are likely to get funding are those that can get to cash flow positive with as little money as possible. Social-oriented services seem especially poised to get hurt.

So, we have to change the conventional wisdom. The old CW: “If we just tweak things, and gradually switch advertisers over, everything should work itself out.” In fact, with the emergence of new, highly targeted ad products, we could see advertisers spending much more on marketing than in the past.

The new CW? It isn’t so simple.

We’ve learned that hyperlocal doesn’t live in a vacuum, and that there isn’t ready demand for block-by-block coverage. But it is a useful add-on. Content platforms have become a commodity but can be improved with navigation, tagging and geotargeting.

We’ve also learned that mapping is a feature that can be greatly enhanced with personalization and advertising, and could be the basis for a new portal (but there are lots of new fronts for portals). And that mobile content shows real promise, but is still kept “closed” by the carriers, which manage 90 percent of it behind their firewalls (although Google’s Android might begin to open things up).

Classifieds have taken a huge hit by free providers such as Craigslist, which continues to gather steam. But it is encouraging to see classifieds get extended by aggregators such as Google Base, Vast and Oodle, which actually started working with MySpace, Facebook and Wal-Mart (a new local player?) — a truly interesting development.

On the “national-local” front, geotargeting has become so widespread that it actually has put a crimp into CPM rates for local publishers, which have come down from $10 to $6 or $7 in many cases. But we’re seeing organic adoption by regional advertisers such as supermarkets, banks, furniture store chains and lotteries. As Centro CEO Shawn Riegsecker has noted: “They’ve been spending 1 percent to 10 percent of their revenue on the Web, with no strategy.” In 2009 they’ll get one.

For “local-local,” the bottom line remains the engagement of the small business. It is greatly encouraging to see the wide adoption of free online tools by real estate agents, for instance, and ad building templates and planning by companies like AdReady, which has deals with companies such as The New York Times.

It is also encouraging to see the evolution of leads-based services, where ServiceMagic, for instance, has moved the continuum from simply providing leads to delivering jobs (i.e., installation of flat screen TVs bought at Target). Angie’s List’s “two-sided cash register” from premium subscriptions and advertising also represents a new model.

In the end, we are in an environment where we are absolutely climbing over bodies to get ahead. But the opportunities seem stronger than ever, as is the relevancy of the products to consumers. It is an important and meaningful thing for all of us to work on, isn’t it? Happy new year to all our friends, and thanks for your support. We’ll see you in 2009.