It’s nearing the end of earnings season for the global Yellow Pages industry, and my program, The Kelsey Report, will soon issue a detailed roundup of 2009 results across all the companies that report publicly.

In general, the news has been grim for print Yellow Pages, though some publishers have given faint glimmers of hope that print will stabilize this year, meaning a slowing rate of decline. Others are projecting an accelerating decline.

A recent (unscientific) Kelsey Report online survey of global YP industry insiders suggests that most in the industry see a strong secular component in recent revenue performance. Probably the most telling messages that has come out of some recent conversations I have had with leaders in the industry is that the continuing, if waning, effectiveness of print is an increasingly irrelevant point. The energy it takes to overcome objections to print can be more effectively directed to selling digital or a product bundle that emphasizes digital.

Ironically, I am hearing more and more that print may be necessary to making the bundle effective because it still drives leads, but it is poisonous to the messaging because no one believes it works. I am hearing more and more about strategies that essentially engineer a faster print-to-online shift because the investment story for a company focused on the local online opportunity is so much more compelling than a traditional media story.

So the big question is, does the industry have a viable plan to become a growing, profitable business in a post-print world? And how will organizations need to change to make economic sense in a world where the product mix is substantially different from what it is today?

These are some of the questions we’ll take a whack at in a workshop we’ll be conducting at the Yellow Pages Association’s conference next month in Las Vegas, and in much greater depth at BIA/Kelsey’s Directional Media Strategies conference in Dallas, Sept. 14-16. The workshop at the YPA event is titled, perhaps hopefully, “Built to Last: The new Yellow Pages Organization.”

My colleague Mike Boland will also have a prominent role at the YPA event, moderating a panel on “Monetizing Mobile Yellow Pages,” which is also the topic of an upcoming joint report from BIA/Kelsey’s Mobile Local Media and Kelsey Report advisory services. Mobile is increasingly seen as key to the future of the business, and arguably, because of its inherent emphasis on calls over clicks as the currency of leads, a place where directories have a more level playing field.

Next week I will be traveling to the Association of Directory Publishers meeting in Houston, where I’ll be very interested in talking to smaller market publishers about the environment they are experiencing. At the last ADP event I attended, it was clear the economy had taken a toll on many publishers, but there wasn’t much talk of a secular decline. I’ll be interested in hearing how the mood and message have changed since the last gathering.

In less than three weeks, we’ll be holding the third (and best) edition of Marketplaces, the only event dedicated to the great opportunities caused by rapid verticalization of local media and services.

Marketplaces 2010 takes places March 22-24 in my hometown of San Diego, which we call “America’s Finest City.” The speakers say they are ready to go, our research team is developing some cutting-edge analysis, and the networking ought to be terrific.

Here’s the near-final lineup (in alpha)

Keynotes:
Jon Brod, EVP, AOL
Jay Herratti, CEO, Citysearch
Andrew Mason, CEO, Groupon
Sam Sebastian, Director, Local & B2B Markets, Google
Craig Smith, CEO, ServiceMagic

Featured Speakers:
Rich Abronson, VP, Gumiyo
Sam Altman, CEO and Cofounder, Loopt
Ethan Anderson, CEO, Redbeacon
Alec Andronikov, CEO, MoVoxx
Jeff Beard, CEO, Localeze
Luke Beatty, President, Associated Content
Rick Blair, CEO, Examiner.com
Reed Brown, CEO, Matchbin
Jim Delli Santi, CEO, Alikelist
Craig Donato, CEO, Oodle
Todd Dubner, SVP, NCI
Jennifer Dulski, CEO, Center’d
Sean Fox, COO, Reply.com
Jordan Glazier, CEO, Eventful
Krista Glotzbach, VP, Marketing, Vast.com
Craig Hagopian, President, V-Enable
Martin Herbst, GM, Kijiji U.S., eBay
Ryan Hoppe, Product Manager, ATG Optimizations
Greg Isaacs, Executive Director, AT&T Interactive
Scott Jampol, Senior Director, Marketing, OpenTable
Jaan Janes, CEO, Pulse360
Ken Kalb, CEO, Analog Analytics
Joelle Kaufman, SVP, Adify
Warren Kay, VP, Fox Audience Network
David Kidder, CEO, Clickable
Bill Lange, CEO, FullSlate
Steve Larsen, CEO, CallSpark
Tony Lee, Chief Alliance Officer, Adicio
Alex Muse, Cofounder, Big in Japan (ShopSavvy)
Colin Pape, CEO, ShopCity
Brad Petersen, VP, Matchcraft
Ben Saren, CEO, CitySquares
Jared Simon, VP, TurnHere
Eric Singley, Mobile Product Manager, Yelp
Julie Smith, Group Product Manager, SuperMedia
Andy Steuer, CEO, MerchEngines
Mat Stover, CEO, Local Matters
David Sturtz, CEO, RepairPal
David Vazdauskas, President, Local Thunder
Darren Waddell, VP, MerchantCircle

Beat the “at the door” price. Register here. Unsure what to expect? Check out the webinar we did last week.

Local/social leaders from Facebook, Yelp and Twitter took the stage at IAB’s Annual Leadership Meeting in Carlsbad, California, this week to discuss what IAB President Randall Rothenberg called “the mobile/social local real-time medium that does not have a name.”

Facebook’s Tim Kendall, director of monetization, said Facebook has essentially introduced “marketing on the social graph” by tracking its unique information, such as “pages,” “events,” “like,” “share” and “connect.”  “We’re getting pretty good at showing you ‘who matters to me’ on news feed and topics,” he said.

Advertising on the site is now in full play. “We have created a social marketing experience that we think it the most interesting social advertising on the Web,” he said. And Facebook’s advertising success is demonstrably strong. “Our click to conversion rate is two to three times other sites. Social wins every time.”

Kendall added that Facebook’s effective CPM ends up being “a couple of dollars,” but that advertisers also come in via the service’s self-serve advertising, which is priced on a flat rate basis.

Jed Nachman from Yelp estimated that the site’s effective CPM was $200. One example, Little Star Pizza in San Francisco, for instance, had 1,500 looks (and presumably pays $300 for the ad). Nachman also noted that on average, Yelp users look at 2-4 reviews before making any decisions.

Meanwhile, Twitter is preparing to launch its first ad product next month, according to Anamitra Banerji, who is “Product Management, Monetization.” Banerji said his prior experience at Overture told him to “innovate really, really quickly before anyone else comes up with it.”

Banerji added that people should “be focused on what you are doing and not worry about what people are doing around you.” He also noted that Twitter is a distributed product. “We don’t see ourselves as a Web site,” he said.

Weighing in on social during a separate session at IAB was MySpace Co-President Jason Hirschhorn. Hirschhorn noted that MySpace is refocused on entertainment and music. “We’re not jettisoning our roots as a social network. But our fans want to be entertained. Not everyone is a publisher.”

Hirschhorn spoke admiringly of Facebook, which has basically deposed MySpace as a leader in social media with almost four times the traffic — 128 million uniques versus 400 million uniques. “The media community itself has its social graph on Facebook,” he said. “But there is a completely different behavior and mind-set you are tapping into when you are a brand marketer.” He noted that MySpace still has information on 13 million bands, and a “16-34 type audience.”

Google VP of ad products Susan Wojcicki told IAB’s Leadership Meeting yesterday that “the display industry is one of the most innovative parts of the Web right now,” and “will be one of the largest ad markets, if not the largest. It has to be,” she added. “Everything is moving online.”

Video, social and mobile will each play a major role for the growth of display ads in Wojcicki’s vision. “Every campaign will have desktop, mobile, video and social elements,” says Wojcicki, a core member of the Google leadership team since the company’s inception, and a leader behind the integration with DoubleClick, which was acquired two years ago for $3.1 billion. She also noted that all display should be integrated with other ad types across the board to boost yield management.

“Video….will be one of the largest industries for us,” adds Wojcicki. “It could be one of largest segments for display. And social too. Over time, everything is social. We haven’t even figured out how social will play in different ad segments across [the] Web.”

Indeed, Wojcicki notes that “ad models aren’t clear in the new online world.” But she expects volume for display to grow astronomically, in part, as Google moves buying to its auction process. Using auctions have boosted display sales by 130 percent, she claims. Ad syndication will also be vital for publishers, as we have seen with projects such as Citysearch’s CityGrid. “Rather than having everyone come to your site, it will be your content and your ads everywhere.”

Google is also working to create a seamless purchase process. “The buying process for display and online inventory is really difficult,” she notes. “Inventory should be frictionless when you are buying it. Everything should be online. All creative should be checked automatically. With these principals in place, “there should be hundreds of thousands of display advertisers,” she says.

Along those lines, DoubleClick has rewritten its buying program for publishers using Google technology. “It is one of the largest integrations between Google and DoubleClick,” adds Wojcicki. “It is faster and fixes a lot of issues.” The program has also been well tested, with more than 500 hours of User Interface time to “get it right,” she says.

The default strategy for many start-ups is to plan to be acquired by Google or Microsoft. But the M&A scene is much more complex than that. Jordan, Edmiston Group Co-President Tolman Geffs, speaking today at IAB’s Annual Leadership Meeting in Carlsbad, California, joked that Google is set to buy Oregon, Washington and Canada “just to mess with Microsoft.”

Speaking more seriously, he noted that “we don’t need Google and Microsoft to buy everything.” Incumbent specialist firms would find higher value in a number of areas. These include marketing analytics, consumer data, cable and entertainment, Web delivery, infrastructure, major agencies, large display ad networks and performance advertising (such as Demand Media).

Geffs noted there is currently a vibrant deal environment, with 178 deals made in the second half of 2009 worth $13.3 billion. This was a major change from a “dead” first half when just 129 deals were completed, he said.

Still, there has only been a “partial recovery from previous levels for online plays. Classifieds is the only sector of advertising that was down,” he said. Especially hot areas include online media, interactive marketing, video and infrastructure plays.

A real “head scratcher” for Geffs is the $1 billion+ committed by Google ($750 million) and Apple ($275 million) for two mobile ad networks: AdMob and Quattro Wireless. “That’s the entire forecast for 2012 mobile ad revenue” he said, noting that the high prices have led to a stunning $211 million worth of investment in nine other mobile ad nets by VCs.

In fact, Geffs questions whether mobile is even a good ad medium. “They help consumers complete tasks,” he noted. But “is this a great promotional medium?”

Geffs, former president of IBS, a TV station Web site builder and advertising provider, is also critical of “vertically integrated” models that rely on content aggregation and search, such as Citysearch and ReachLocal. Costs are too high.

ReachLocal, for instance, is a vertically integrated play that only leaves 7 percent of its revenues to support its product and platform, after spending 55 percent on consumer traffic and 38 percent on sales and marketing.

He’s more excited about local companies that solve a problem and keep content, audience and sales costs low, such as Outside.in, Datasphere, Triton Media, MerchantCircle, Manta, Yelp and Angie’s List. “We are big fans,” he said.

Huffington Post CEO Eric Hippeau defended the role of the site in journalism and said it is helping to herald in “a golden age of journalism” that has more content and audience participation than ever before.

Speaking at IAB’s Annual Leadership Meeting in Carlsbad, California, Hippeau noted that HuffPo is publishing 500 pieces of content a day, compared with the 100 pieces published by The New York Times. Each piece is curated constantly with the help of the site’s “hyper-efficient editor.” And it publishes 2 million comments a month.

Much of the content comes from newspapers and other media. But Hippeau argues, “I did not kill newspapers,” echoing the five-word acceptance speech of a Webbie award by site founder Arianna Huffington last fall. Rather, he says the site brings new users to newspaper sites by links, like Google.

In fact, he contends that newspaper sites are actually doing pretty well. It is the traditional print business that is hurting. Basically, it is a coincidence that “our business is soaring while circulation at newspapers is declining.”

“If I was starting a news business today, the last thing I’d do is hire a team of traditional journalists and buy a printing press,” he says.

Hippeau also contends that the site’s success in boosting usage is based largely on successful verticalization. While the site boomed during the Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama campaign, it is now only dependent on politics for 20 percent to 25 percent of its traffic. The site, in fact, has just launched its 13th vertical section: colleges. The section enables students to contribute campus-by-campus news for 50+ colleges.

The site also has four local editions (Chicago, New York, Los Angeles and Denver) and has also recently launched a sports site, which now accounts for 10 percent of its traffic. The timing was fortuitous as the launch occurred around the Tiger Woods scandals three months ago. “It is the gift that keeps on giving,” he says.

The Interactive Advertising Bureau, celebrating its 15^th anniversary, is holding its annual leadership meeting at La Costa in Carlsbad, California. The sold-out meeting, dubbed “Ecosystem 2.0,” has attracted 650 attendees, up 30 percent from last year: a further omen of recovery in the economy. Over the years, we have actively helped IAB develop its leadership tracks in local, so it is good to see the organization on very sound footing.

24/7 Real Media Chairman David Moore, in an opening keynote, noted that 12 percent of ad dollars are now online, but online share remains disproportionately low, considering that 25 percent of viewing time is spent online. The audience’s increasing fragmentation forces publishers to look for new revenue paths, he added.

The clearest path to recovery is to focus on building more premium content, even though it inevitably means that subscriber charges need to be added. “Totally free content is dead,” said Moore. But that isn’t the end of the world. In 1982, cable TV was beginning to add unique networks, subscriptions were $6 per month. Now they may be $100 a month.

If an “EZY pay” system were instituted for content at 10 cents per access, that would be like charging a CPM of $100,” Moore suggested. That would be far more lucrative than what most publishers are getting.

Moore also predicted that digital would be the No. 1 ad medium within the next five years, with online video advertising leading the way. But first, the industry has got to adopt real standards and simplify the workflow for agencies and concentrate on finding new ways to make commercials more interesting to the consumer.

“You can’t be afraid to be disruptive,” added Moore. “You need to be more aggressive. You have to interrupt the consumer experience with ads. But do it in a way that is interesting and targeted.”

IAB President Randall Rothenberg, in his opening comments, said the key to advertiser success was to focus on the year-after-year development of brand building, which is a synonymous effort with charging premium prices, i.e., BMW and Johnson & Johnson. “It is about being a part of, not apart from,” said Rothenberg.

Marketplaces 2010 takes place just seven weeks from now in San Diego (March 22-24). We are putting the finishing touches on the program, and have added MANY exciting new speakers in just the past few weeks.

The event is totally dedicated to the higher value/conversion/engagement ethos of vertical media. For sure, this isn’t one size fits all of newspapers and Yellow Pages anymore (but then again, these traditional media are rapidly verticalizing too).

Featured sessions include five big keynotes; Mike Boland’s Mobile Vertical SuperForum; and a preconference session on the Tools of Marketplaces, including experts on search, video, enhanced calls, online scheduling, promotion and classifieds.

We also have cutting-edge panels on new directories and city guides; small-business marketplaces; vertical ad networks; vertical search; content aggregators (a great session with Examiner.com CEO Rick Blair); and local retailers and marketplaces. To top it all off, there is a special “making money” session with Classifieds Master Tony Lee, chief alliance officer of Adicio.

Basically, everyone is on board. Our five big keynotes will come from:

• Jon Brod, Executive VP, AOL Ventures
• Jay Herratti, CEO, Citysearch
• Andrew Mason, Founder and CEO, Groupon
• Sam Sebastian, Director, Local & B2B Markets, Google
• Craig Smith, CEO, ServiceMagic

Mike Boland’s Mobile Vertical SuperForum has eight great speakers:

• Sam Altman, Cofounder and CEO, Loopt
• Alec Andronikov, CEO, MoVoxx
• Craig Hagopian, President, V-Enable
• Scott Jampol, Senior Director of Consumer Marketing, OpenTable
• Steve Larsen, CEO, CallSpark
• Alexander Muse, Cofounder, Big in Japan (ShopSavvy)
• Eric Singley, Mobile Product Manager, Yelp
• David Sturtz, Cofounder and CEO, RepairPal

Other featured speakers include:

• Ethan Anderson, Cofounder, Redbeacon
• Jeff Beard, President and GM, Localeze
• Rick Blair, CEO, Examiner.com
• Reed Brown, President and CEO, Matchbin
• Jim Delli Santi, Cofounder and CEO, AlikeList
• Craig Donato, CEO, Oodle
• Todd Dubner, Senior VP, Development, NCI
• Jennifer Dulski, CEO, Center’d
• Sean Fox, COO, Reply.com
• Jordan Glazier, CEO, Eventful
• Krista Glotzbach, VP, Marketing, Vast.com
• Martin Herbst, GM, Kijiji U.S., eBay
• Greg Isaacs, Executive Director and GM, AT&T Interactive
• Jaan Janes, CEO, Pulse 360
• Joelle Kaufman, Senior VP, Marketing, Adify
• Warren Kay, VP, Fox Audience Network
• David Kidder, Cofounder and CEO, Clickable
• Tony Lee, Chief Alliance Officer, Adicio
• Colin Pape, CEO, ShopCity.com
• Ben Saren, Cofounder and CEO, CitySquares
• Julie Smith, Group Product Manager, SuperMedia
• Mat Stover, CEO, Local Matters
• David Vazdauskas, President, Local Thunder

Do you think it will be a great conference? Do you think you can do major business? Please get more info here or sign up to register here. Rates are better in advance than at the door.

Three years ago, BIA/Kelsey created the Marketplaces research program and conference because we saw that local advertising was quickly “verticalizing.” Indeed, money and talent have poured in for the new breed of vertical products that would take their place among existing vertical success stories, such as AutoTrader, Cars.com, Realtor.com and ServiceMagic.

The Marketplaces 2010 conference reveals just how fast the industry has evolved. This year’s event, now under construction, is set to highlight all the major trends in Marketplaces, including:

• AOL’s $50 million investment in Patch.com, and ongoing transformation of its Mediaglow vertical properties (and Mapquest)
• eBay’s renewed efforts to build up classifieds as entry-level e-commerce via Kijiji, eBay Motors and other services
• Examiner.com’s  big bet on local/vertical content, and its network of 26,000 “examiners.”
• Groupon’s “smart mob” theory of local commerce, backed by a $32 million investment, that allows hundreds to make a volume purchase of local services and products.
• Redbeacon, AlikeList and others’ efforts to remake ServiceMagic-like home and trade leads with social media
• Adify and Pulse360’s  bid to verticalize ad networks for local merchants and national brands
• OpenTable’s big bet on mobile to let diners make reservations wherever they are.

The two-day conference takes full advantage of its location in sunny San Diego. It includes rich research presentations, top-flight demos of the latest services, and a preconference showcasing all the best tools of Marketplaces 2010. Come to San Diego March 22-24 to learn, enjoy the unbeatable networking and participate. You can register at early-bird rates here.

CONFIRMED SPEAKERS (in Alpha)

• Ethan Anderson, CEO, Redbeacon
• Jeff Beard, CEO, Localeze
• Rick Blair, CEO, Examiner.com
• Jon Brod, EVP, AOL*
• Craig Donato, CEO, Oodle
• Jim Delli Santi, CEO, AlikeList
• Todd Dubner, SVP, NCI
• Russ Fradin, CEO, Adify
• Krista Glotzbach, VP, Vast.com
• Mark Goldstein, Chairman, Loyalty Labs
• Martin Herbst, GM, Kijiji U.S., eBay
• Scott Jampol, Senior Director, Marketing, OpenTable
• Jaan Janes, CEO, Pulse 360
• David Kidder, CEO, Clickable
• Steve Larsen, CEO, CallSpark
• Andrew Mason, CEO, GroupOn*
• Colin Pape, CEO, ShopCity
• Ben Saren, CEO, CitySquares
• Craig Smith, President, ServiceMagic
• Mat Stover, CEO, Local Matters
• David Vazdauskas, President, Local Thunder

*keynote

Special thanks to the 60 speakers and 515 attendees who made the ILM:09 conference such a great learning and socializing experience. Among the 85 conferences produced by John and Pam Kelsey and their team (including myself), we think it might have been one of the best.

In addition to the excellent, on-the-spot coverage of the event by the BIA/Kelsey analysts, other extensive and excellent coverage has been provided by David Mihm on his blog; Andrew Krukowski of TVNewscheck.com; Andrew Shotland at Local SEO Guide; Cory Bergman at LostRemote.com (a featured speaker vis a vis his dayjob at MSNBC.com; and Mark Briggs at Journalism 2.0.

There is also a fantastic, lengthy Twitter feed from conference attendees (and weirdly, off-site observers). Thanks especially to champion Twitterer Emerson Calegaretti, Internet Business Director at Publicar do Brasil. Emerson, we owe you some kind of prize!

Our next event is Marketplaces 2009, March 22-24 in San Diego. You’ll hear more about that after the New Year.