The deals culture is shifting from customer acquisition to customer loyalty by necessity. Why? Deals have begun losing high-income women. That’s the view of Next Jump CEO Charlie Kim, a featured speaker at ILM East in Boston March 26-28.

“Daily deals had an initial surge then quickly lost flavor on a key customer segment — higher income women with jobs,” Kim said in an email exchange with us. “This segment is the most profitable to most merchants. Acquiring them as a loyal repeat customer is worth quite a bit over any other customer segment.

Are deals really losing these women? Kim said the explosion of daily deals has led directly to lower conversion rates. “Daily emailing of 50 percent discount offers quickly turned from value to fatigue users,” he said. “ Email response rates and all conversion rates took downward dips across almost every vertical. That’s echoed by all the e-commerce merchants we have talked to.”

Loyalty programs such as those run by Next Jump, however, have begun to reverse the downward course “Towards the second half of 2011, we managed to climb conversion back up. This was not done via targeting, but through loyalty. The growth of loyal repeat visitors increased conversion rates at every level 50-150 percent higher, category by category.”

Kim said loyalty is mostly measured as a byproduct of points and rewards. “From 2010 to 2011, as the points platform got stronger, we saw metrics increase as follows: 100 percent increase in first-time visitors converting into a transactor. 300 percent increase in single-transactor converting into a repeat loyal transactor.”

Kim adds that the big trend on the horizon will be ease of purchase — convenience. “Make it easy for me to find and buy what I need,” said Kim. “Earn my trust as a consumer, and even at good prices [not best], you will have my wallet share. This is how you earn loyal customers.”

Charlie Kim is a featured speaker at ILM East, which takes places March 26-28 in Boston. Other loyalty-related speakers include Jim Douglass, SVP, Cartera, and John Valentine, VP, SCVNGR/LevelUp. You can register here.

John Donahoe, eBay CEO and interim PayPal CEO, projected soaring numbers for new mobile payment forecasts. During his keynote speech at the Consumer Electronics Association, Donahoe predicted that eBay would reach $8 billion in mobile gross merchandise volume (GMV) this year, almost double its $5 billion GMV we reported from last year. Reasons for the growth include a growing acceptance of mobile commerce, a surge in iPad use for mobile payments, and new apps that blend offline and online capabilities.

PayPal’s projected numbers look even better at $7 billion, a 75 percent increase over last year. 2011 was still a good year for the online payment company as it surpassed its $3.5 billion expectations to reach $4 billion in mobile payments. Although its sales are rising twice as fast as eBay’s, PayPal Chief Scientist Moh Ok told our audience at ILM West that both companies are “laser focused” on commerce.

Donahoe also announced its new strategic partnership with eBay’s RedLaser barcode scanning app — Best Buy. Last year, the app was updated to include PayPal and Milo integration that gives users the ability to buy on the spot for either in-store pickup or at-home delivery. EBay is expected to post 57 cents a share in earnings on $3.32 billion in revenues during its Q4 earnings call next week.

Dan Hess, CEO of deals aggregator and research company Local Offer Network, played mythbuster at ILM West, using data to set the record straight on where the market is moving…and where it isn’t.

Hess is convinced that there is still ample room for “specialization” across geography, demography and interests…rather than the doomsday consolidation/roll-up  scenarios forecast by many. As a result, “the money is still there,” meaning that margin compression hasn’t undercut the business models of many deals providers as expected.

This reinforces BIA/Kelsey forecasts, which project the U.S. deals market to reach $4.2 billion by 2015.

Rather than the initial conception of the buyer as a pure deal hunter, LON’s data suggest that shoppers are moving up-market in their purchase behavior, using deals for “higher-consideration items” such as clothing and accessories, health/medical/dental, and travel/hospitality. The average deal voucher has jumped to $76.33. Shoppers also have far more time to consider these pricier purchases, as average deal duration is nearly five days (up from 1.7 in Q3 2010).

Hess’ lasting words: “If all else fails, get a laser.” Data shows that laser hair removal deals are big winners.

Companies are beginning to focus on loyalty programs for existing customers, rather than simply using deal a day to acquire new customers. Closely and WildFire App are both pursuing loyalty programs.

A loyalty start-up we like is Punchcard, which launches today. The brainchild of MerchEngines founder Andy Steuer, Punchcard is a smartphone app that provides a virtual facsimile of the loyalty cards that customers are familiar with from their favorite coffee or ice cream shop (get 10 purchase stamps or punches, get one free).

Punchcard has gotten $1 million in seed funding from IdeaLab, and has hired five people, including local business development executive Dawn Padungian (Local.com, Charter Cable.)

Consumers sign up for Punchcard on a store-by-store basis, and receive a virtual punch after snapping a photo of their receipt. They can sign in via Facebook Connect. The service is currently available for iPhone users, and an Android version will launch in January.

Steuer tells us the card’s virtual nature gives it real flexibility in terms of incentives, or what he terms “offer triggers.” After their 10th purchase, for instance, customers can get cash or credit. The amount would be based on their average spending. That’s the standard offer. Since it is all electronic, however, merchants could opt to provide rewards after a certain number of purchases in a given month, or after a certain amount is spent, etc.

The company will also be in a good position to leverage behavioral data, and make nearby recommendations. It doesn’t have to worry about email fatigue issues since all its communications are via the app, rather than email, notes Steuer.

To rev up the market, Punchcard is seeding the market in Southern California with a prepopulated list of 147,000 merchants. During the trial period, it will pay the credit for the merchant’s 11th sale (up to $30.). The company’s actual revenue model, however, is based on monthly fees ranging from $29 to $129. At launch, 40 companies are already paying.

If Punchcard is successful in winning 5 percent more local users, research from The Center for Retail Management shows that can translate to 60 percent to 100 percent gains in revenues, adds Steuer.

One of our big complaints against hyperlocal sites is they haven’t really invested in the commercial lifeblood of their community. They’re more like the (almost totally irrelevant) equivalent of a public access cable TV channel.

That’s why we like the approach of ShopCity, which lets hyperlocal sites, chambers of commerce, local publishers and local governments use a platform that provides enhanced listings, transactions and social media tools for SMBs.

Two former Gatehouse digital staff, in particular, have taken out new ShopCity sites: Emily Lowry, who launched Magic City Post’s ShopBirmingham after working on ShopBuffalo last year, and well-known journalism blogger and executive Howard Owens, who today launched ShopBatavia. The sites make me want to go out and use ShopCity to launch a shopping site for my own town.

The sites are new for ShopCity, which now has 30 local sites around the U.S. and Canada. The company has also launched ShopLocally, which is kind of a networked “greatest hits site” comprising the best of ShopCity sites.

Owens notes in today’s The Batavian that “ShopBatavia.com isn’t just another ‘hope they find us’ business directory with nothing more than a picture and a few words about your business.

“With ShopBatavia.com merchants can actually sell online, offer specials, discounts, coupons, daily deals, product information, set up newsletters for direct marketing, integrate with Facebook and Twitter, answer customer questions and do it all in an environment that is professional and backed by same-day phone support.”

Owens adds that “ShopBatavia.com is bolstered by the marketing power of The Batavian, with its thousands of daily local readers and thousands of Facebook fans.”

Black Friday and Cyber Monday for holiday shopping are bedrocks of the nation’s economy. Where do deals fit in?

As Bloomberg reports, Yipit Data forecasts that U.S. consumers will spend $80 million to $100 million on daily deals gifts between Thanksgiving and Christmas, up from $15 million to $20 million in 2010. A separate poll of 10,000 Yipit users found that more than 90 percent said they were likely to buy a daily deal as a gift this year.

Our gut also tells us that deals will be attractive for the holidays.

• They are fun and not stigmatized as “cheap.”
• National brands account for roughly 15 percent for major sites, and will have some very attractive deals set for the major destination sites.
• Social deals that give a free deal for three or more buys lend themselves naturally to the holidays.

The sites seem like they are prepared. As the Bloomberg article notes, Groupon expanded its Grouponicus holiday site to more than 40 cities, up from 20 last year. It also added more deals involving unique experiences, including tickets to “Ellen DeGeneres” and a half-price helicopter ride in New Jersey.

Deals are prominently featured at ILM West Dec. 12-14 in San Francisco, with cutting-edge data from BIA/Kelsey and Local Offer Network; major media companies such as CBS and Belo talking about their experiences; and next wave providers including Thrillist and Scoutmob. Register here.

Groupon announced this week that it will soon launch Groupon Goods, a division that will sell selective clearance items. The announcement, which comes a day after it announced a merchant rewards program, shows the company moving to really leverage its deals-oriented user list.

Can Groupon pull it off? To me, it depends on whether Groupon is (still) seen as a great curator of discounted consumer services and goods — or whether it has watered down its core message (and credibility). Let the consumers decide.

Groupon Goods, of course, will compete directly with other non-local deals, such as Amazon’s Woot. Theoretically, it also pits Groupon against other companies that specialize in discounted, overstocked goods — like Next Jump and Overstock.com.

As Portfolio reports, the initial batch of offerings includes an ionic hair dryer for $69, an LED HDTV for $440 and a coffee-brewing machine for $69. The discounts, Groupon says, range from 37 percent off to 60 percent off the retail price.

“To get airspace on Groupon Goods, a product has to be cool enough to share and innovative enough to inspire,” noted a company release. “It also must be made of reliably bonded molecules and stardust. Honestly, if we think a product is remarkable and we can offer a good deal on it, we’ll do so.”

Groupon isn’t the first deals company to provide goods. Others have done it, including South Korea’s TMon. But it is still a significant reimagining of Groupon’s footprint. As board member Ted Leonsis notes in a haiku-like post: “Lots more great deals now are offered up. This is a curated commerce business. Daily Deals. Travel deals. Deals on Goods. Deals on Services. Deals.”

We spoke with SaleLocator cofounder Michael Falkson, who said the company is looking to partner with local content websites, including news and Yellow Pages sites. Earlier this month, SaleLocator launched a shopping list feature with multi-point directions that allows users to add a sale to a personal shopping list and the ability to organize all sales until they expire.

SaleLocator competitors include other retail-focused sites like ShopLocal and Wishpond. Falkson said what sets SaleLocator apart is the sales info for its broad range of 600 to 1,000 retail outlets. In addition, Falkson said the SaleLocator API may benefit more broader stroke local ad sites like Local.com.

Open APIs are becoming increasingly common in the online local search space, with Canada’s Yellow API and similar efforts from Citygrid, AT&T interactive and others.

Specialized verticals are a major part of the new marketplaces environment. One vertical we like is TeachStreet, a portal that helps consumers find teachers, and then helps sign them up and process payments.

Along the same lines is TakeLessons, a five-year-old teacher site that is exclusively focused on hooking vetted music teachers with students. The San Diego-based company has just announced a $6 million raise with participants including MySpace cofounder Josh Berman and former Facebook exec Tim Kendall. The funding comes on top of $1.7 million in angel funding.

The music lessons space is a $3 billion industry, but highly fragmented and full of part-time teachers who may not have the expertise to do their own marketing. TakeLessons has been designed to control the business processes, including finding customers, selling them, collecting payments and scheduling the services. The company takes an undisclosed cut from every lesson, which average $25 for a typical half-hour piano class.

Certified instructors are available via TakeLessons in 3,000 U.S. cities. Music categories include voice lessons, piano, drum, guitar, singing and saxophone. The company also offers courses in less common instruments, such as harp, mandolin, ukulele, harmonica and Flamenco guitar, as well as DJ lessons, music recording workshops, songwriting, speaking voice and music performance.

The company, which has 54 workers in San Diego and 137 workers nationwide, recently had a major coupon by landing a program with BestBuy to place teachers inside their new Best Buy Musical Instruments stores. Additional partnerships have been formed with the National Association of Music Merchants, which has its instructor’s site powered by TakeLessons, and TeachStreet itself, which takes many listings in its music category from TakeLessons. Additional partnerships are being pursued.

CEO and founder Steven Cox tells us that the company made a mistake in its early days by providing a wide range of classes, and also focusing on lead generation. “We realized that if we didn’t focus on one area, we wouldn’t be good in any of them,” he said. As for lead generation, it didn’t leverage the company’s real strength, which was to develop a marketplace, he says.

I love this concept, and tried out the search engine for my area in north San Diego. I found several “piano” teachers within a few miles; a (rare) “bassoon” teacher was found 53 miles away. “Steel drums,” however, seemed to throw the engine off, as it tried to give me “percussion.” I actually (used to) play steel drums, but of course…. not many people do.

Online retail spending reached $37.5 billion, up 14 percent from a year ago, according to comScore’s latest quarterly study. Highlights from comScore’s study  include:

• The 14-percent growth in the quarter was primarily a function of an increase in the number of buyers (up 16 percent), with 70 percent of all Internet users making at least one online purchase in the quarter.
• The top-performing online product categories were: Consumer Electronics (excl. PC peripherals), Computer Hardware, Computer Software, and Event Tickets. Each category grew at least 15 percent vs. year ago.
• The top 25 online retailers accounted for 66.4 percent of dollars spent online, down from 67.7 percent a year ago and down from a peak of 69.9 percent in Q3 2010, as small and mid-sized retailers continue to regain lost market share.

SMBs should take advantage of social media, location-based deal offerings and check-in services which provide the convenience and economical prices that consumers crave when shopping online.